Today's blog post is about the concept of confirmation bias. This idea stems from the inappropriate or negligent strategy utilized to ascertain an answer to a question. Confirmation bias comes up frequently in science when people are attempting to find a desirable result in an experiment, and will sometimes grasp at straws or invent a conclusion. The same can also be applied to MLM as people attempt to prove the efficacy of MLM through faulty means.
Confirmation Bias: Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities. It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
According to the Wikipedia definition, here are some of the methods MLMs use that would be considered confirmation bias:
1. If someone has a question about a particular part of MLM, for instance the expected amount of income a distributor can generate, MLMs will not talk about the income disclosure agreement. Instead, an MLMer might show pictures of flashy cars, mansions, boats, and money, which is misleading at best because only a fraction of 1% ever attain that kind of wealth. They decide to ignore the statistics, which have been designed to show the actual expectation of monthly and annual income.
2. MLMs utilize wholesome values to imply it is genuine and legitimate. MLMers will suggest the business has veracity because they are devout Christians, believe in matrimony, or they may be charitable. While these can be great qualities, they have nothing to do with a business being legitimate. It is important to look to regulatory agencies, such as the FTC and the SEC for guidelines on what makes a business legitimate.
3. MLMs utilize ambiguous evidence very frequently. They suggest there are a lot of successful people and then fail to mention anyone, or if they do, they mention only a few of the top 1%. MLMers may suggest the industry is thriving or is a multi-billion dollar industry, but fail to note that it has far more members driving that total revenue over a billion than blue chip companies that are worth far more in comparison (this is another way of saying MLMs are inefficient). Finally, they may something such as, "The people that are successful are the people who put int he effort, and the people who quit didn't try hard enough". Well, that may be true for some, but for most they do try really hard and they still fail. This is again a point they tend to leave out of the conversation.
4. Attitude Polarization is very big in MLM. I have had many debates with MLMers about their businesses and how the statistics reflect a very poor performance. The responses are routinely bizarre and suggest, the statistics came from a flawed source (often they come from their own companies), the statistics don't accurately reflect the overall business (statistics are designed to take data and make inferences about the data gathered), statistics can't quantify individuals (similar to the last one), or statistics are not real evidence (meanwhile they will call upon their own statistics as long as they suit their cause). This has become a rampant problem for people that are disillusioned by thoughtspeak (Orwell). They cannot rationally look at evidence anymore and have utilized programmed cognitive dissonance to rationalize the dissenting information.
5. Belief perseverance is also very big in MLM, especially after utilizing attitude polarization. MLMers will continue to pursue MLM even after being confronted with evidence because it feels good, or they think they are learning something useful, or they just want to do it and don't care about the results. This is often connected with denial, because no rational person would want to throw money away, especially if it was hurting others in the process.
6. The irrational primacy effect often comes into play when describing the opportunity for success in MLM. Unfortunately, as MLM grows the possibility for growth shrinks in an exponentially larger percentage. When MLMers describe the successes of their predecessors they are forgetting to mention that it was a different time, a different market condition, and a different knowledge base. All of these effect the new MLMers outcome, but they still rely on the fact that a previous person was able to be successful.
7. Illusory correlation happens the most, and often includes many of the previously stated confirmation biases. One of the most common illusory correlations is the shape of MLM and the shape of Corporate America are both pyramids, therefore they are both legitimate. Not only does this not make sense on an arbitrary level, but it doesn't make sense on a deeper level either. Yet it rolls off the tongue well, and MLMers continue to fool and deceive new prospects consistently with this terrible line.
MLMs frequently utilize confirmation bias to manipulate and deceive their distributors. They provide false analogies, unrelated information, and deceptive claims. They also go out of their way to discredit any dissenting information and opinions, and they are quick to sever ties with anyone that does not share their complete worldview.
If you have a story involving abuses from your upline and would like me to share it on this blog as a guest post, then please e-mail me and I will be more than happy to post it! Your stories are not as unique as you may think, and your stories are some of the most impactful resources we have to fight MLMs. I will keep your anonymity upon request.
Confirmation Bias: Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities. It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
According to the Wikipedia definition, here are some of the methods MLMs use that would be considered confirmation bias:
1. If someone has a question about a particular part of MLM, for instance the expected amount of income a distributor can generate, MLMs will not talk about the income disclosure agreement. Instead, an MLMer might show pictures of flashy cars, mansions, boats, and money, which is misleading at best because only a fraction of 1% ever attain that kind of wealth. They decide to ignore the statistics, which have been designed to show the actual expectation of monthly and annual income.
2. MLMs utilize wholesome values to imply it is genuine and legitimate. MLMers will suggest the business has veracity because they are devout Christians, believe in matrimony, or they may be charitable. While these can be great qualities, they have nothing to do with a business being legitimate. It is important to look to regulatory agencies, such as the FTC and the SEC for guidelines on what makes a business legitimate.
3. MLMs utilize ambiguous evidence very frequently. They suggest there are a lot of successful people and then fail to mention anyone, or if they do, they mention only a few of the top 1%. MLMers may suggest the industry is thriving or is a multi-billion dollar industry, but fail to note that it has far more members driving that total revenue over a billion than blue chip companies that are worth far more in comparison (this is another way of saying MLMs are inefficient). Finally, they may something such as, "The people that are successful are the people who put int he effort, and the people who quit didn't try hard enough". Well, that may be true for some, but for most they do try really hard and they still fail. This is again a point they tend to leave out of the conversation.
4. Attitude Polarization is very big in MLM. I have had many debates with MLMers about their businesses and how the statistics reflect a very poor performance. The responses are routinely bizarre and suggest, the statistics came from a flawed source (often they come from their own companies), the statistics don't accurately reflect the overall business (statistics are designed to take data and make inferences about the data gathered), statistics can't quantify individuals (similar to the last one), or statistics are not real evidence (meanwhile they will call upon their own statistics as long as they suit their cause). This has become a rampant problem for people that are disillusioned by thoughtspeak (Orwell). They cannot rationally look at evidence anymore and have utilized programmed cognitive dissonance to rationalize the dissenting information.
5. Belief perseverance is also very big in MLM, especially after utilizing attitude polarization. MLMers will continue to pursue MLM even after being confronted with evidence because it feels good, or they think they are learning something useful, or they just want to do it and don't care about the results. This is often connected with denial, because no rational person would want to throw money away, especially if it was hurting others in the process.
6. The irrational primacy effect often comes into play when describing the opportunity for success in MLM. Unfortunately, as MLM grows the possibility for growth shrinks in an exponentially larger percentage. When MLMers describe the successes of their predecessors they are forgetting to mention that it was a different time, a different market condition, and a different knowledge base. All of these effect the new MLMers outcome, but they still rely on the fact that a previous person was able to be successful.
7. Illusory correlation happens the most, and often includes many of the previously stated confirmation biases. One of the most common illusory correlations is the shape of MLM and the shape of Corporate America are both pyramids, therefore they are both legitimate. Not only does this not make sense on an arbitrary level, but it doesn't make sense on a deeper level either. Yet it rolls off the tongue well, and MLMers continue to fool and deceive new prospects consistently with this terrible line.
MLMs frequently utilize confirmation bias to manipulate and deceive their distributors. They provide false analogies, unrelated information, and deceptive claims. They also go out of their way to discredit any dissenting information and opinions, and they are quick to sever ties with anyone that does not share their complete worldview.
If you have a story involving abuses from your upline and would like me to share it on this blog as a guest post, then please e-mail me and I will be more than happy to post it! Your stories are not as unique as you may think, and your stories are some of the most impactful resources we have to fight MLMs. I will keep your anonymity upon request.